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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-09 22:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 092030 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-09 22:30:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT COULD THEN RESTRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Paulette was located near 20.5, -47.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-09 22:30:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 ...PAULETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT COULD THEN RESTRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 47.4W ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-09 22:29:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092029 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 30SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-09 19:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091735 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A small area of low pressure located about 300 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms near its center of circulation. The low is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some development is possible before it moves inland over eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon. Interests along the coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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