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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-09 19:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091734 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located more than 400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave is producing a large area disturbed area that extends several hundred miles south and southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-09 17:03:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 15:03:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 15:03:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-09 17:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 091459 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-09 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Morning visible satellite images show that Paulette's center is located beneath a thin veil of cirrus and displaced to the south of the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a recent ASCAT pass which showed an area of 45-50 kt winds northwest of the center, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. A large upper-level trough is located to the northwest of Paulette, and this feature is producing 20-30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase well over 30 kt during the next day or two as Paulette gets closer to the upper-level disturbance, which should cause the cyclone's maximum winds to gradually decrease through day 3. The shear is forecast to abate somewhat and back around from the southeast by days 4 and 5, which could allow Paulette to restrengthen a little bit over the subtropical Atlantic at that time. The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus. Although Paulette has been hopscotching around a bit, likely being influenced by the sheared convection, the 12-hour motion is now toward the west-northwest (290/8 kt). Subtropical ridging to the north of Paulette is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory for the next 48 hours. After that time, the ridge is likely to weaken a bit, which should allow Paulette to move toward the northwest with some increase in forward speed on days 3 though 5. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models for this forecast, and while they all agree on the general future trajectory, there are some speed differences. In particular, the UKMET and HWRF start out much slower than the other models, and the ECWMF is much faster than the rest of the guidance by days 4 and 5. Relying on continuity and the model consensus aids, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted very little from the previous prediction. The initial and forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded based on the recent scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.7N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.9N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 22.2N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-09 16:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Paulette was located near 20.0, -46.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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