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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-09 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091431 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Although easterly shear has been affecting the system, Rene is producing vigorous deep convection, along with a broad convective band, over its western semicircle. Scatterometer data indicate winds to 35 knots over the northwestern quadrant, and therefore the system is again being designated as a tropical storm. The cyclone should be within an environment of moderate vertical shear, on the western side of an upper-level anticyclone, for the next couple of days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane late this week. By the weekend, increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. Rene is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, on the southern side of a mid-level ridge. A weakness in the ridge near 40W longitude is likely to cause the storm to turn toward the northwest in 2 to 3 days, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. By the end of the forecast period, Rene's forward progress should slow as it encounters a block in the mid-level flow. As anticipated, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far to the left as the latest corrected multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-09 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 091431 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-09 16:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091431 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 31.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 31.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-09 14:28:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091227 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Corrected Friday to Thursday in the second paragraph For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Depression Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A small area of low pressure located about 375 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce minimal shower and thunderstorm activity near its center of circulation. The low is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some development is possible before it moves inland over eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon. Interests along the coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-09 13:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091151 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located more than 400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of disturbed weather extends several hundred miles south and southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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