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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260848 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 854 WTPZ23 KNHC 260848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-26 10:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 17.5, -106.7 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 853 WTPZ33 KNHC 260848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 106.7W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this afternoon, followed a motion toward the north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-26 07:25:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 260525 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 25 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a low pressure system located about 250 miles west-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. If this development trend continues, advisories could be initiated on this system early Wednesday. This disturbance is expected to move slowly northeastward near or just west of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. For more information on this system, see High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An elongated area of low pressure near the coast of south-central Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and its close proximity to land. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Another low pressure system is located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization, and this system will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly east-northeastward to northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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