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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-27 07:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 270558 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on powerful Hurricane Laura, located inland over southwestern Louisiana. A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic about 350 miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-27 07:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 270534 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan, located more than 100 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and also on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 05:00:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:00:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:00:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270258 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that a convective burst has formed a little closer to the center of Iselle during the past few hours, although the circulation remains at least somewhat elongated. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 35 kt, so that remains the initial intensity. The imagery, as well as model analyses, show that Iselle continues to be undergoing strong easterly shear. Iselle is embedded in a large monsoon gyre, and the southwesterly flow on the south side of the gyre should be the main steering influence for the next 60 h or so. This should result in the cyclone continuing its current slow motion toward the northeast. After that time, the cyclone should separate from the gyre, allowing a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the system to become the dominant steering mechanism. This should cause Iselle to turn to the north, then northwest, then eventually to the west. The track guidance is in good agreement with the general scenario, although there is some spread on when and where there turns will occur. The new forecast track is close to the HCCA corrected consensus mode and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Present indications are that the current strong shear will persist for several days, and after 72 h the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler sea surface temperatures. Based on this, significant strengthening appears unlikely, although short-lived spin ups due to convective bursts are possible. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast in showing little change of strength for 72 h, followed by weakening to a depression and a remnant low. An alternative scenario is that the shear causes Iselle to weaken to a trough at any time during the next 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Iselle was located near 16.2, -116.2 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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