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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-26 13:28:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
348 ABPZ20 KNHC 261128 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become better organized overnight and recent satellite derived wind data show that the surface circulation has become better defined. If these development trends continue, advisories will be initiated later this morning. The system is forecast to move slowly east-northeastward to northeastward over the open eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-26 13:26:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261126 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Laura, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-26 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260849 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 The broad area of low pressure that the NHC has been tracking the past few days has become better defined based on a 0356Z ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass. Although the system is slightly elongated northeast-to-southwest, the center is well defined and deep convection has persisted west of the center despite strong easterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Thus, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 13-E. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on scatterometer surface wind speeds of 30-32 kt, which are consistent with T2.0/30-kt satellite classifications from TAFB-SAB. The initial motion estimate is slowly north-northeastward or 025/04 kt. The depression is embedded within an east-to-west oriented cyclonic gyre with a high-amplitude mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. These gyre will cause the cyclone to move slowly northward today and northwestward on Thursday, with the ridge acting as a poleward block and forcing to system to turn west-northwestward to westward on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The NHC official track forecast closely follows the simple consensus model TVCE, and lies a little to the left or west of the corrected-consensus model HCCA and the ECMWF model tracks. Strong easterly shear is forecast to persist through the next 24 hours, so little if any strengthening is expected during that time. In fact, convection is likely to erode a little during the day today, and then redevelop closer to the center tonight when the shear begins to abate somewhat. In the 36-60 hour period, the shear is forecast to weaken considerably from the northeast, allowing for some slight strengthening to occur. However, the intensity is not expected to increase to more than 35-40 kt, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains remaining offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. For those reason, a tropical warning has not been issued for southwestern Mexico at this time. The official intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA, HWRF, and ECMWF models intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.5N 106.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2020-08-26 10:49:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 08:49:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 08:49:17 GMT
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