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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-23 22:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 232055 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 2(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) 1(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 5(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 5(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) 1(38) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 15(43) 1(44) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 3(46) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 25(49) 2(51) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 22(48) 2(50) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 16(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 14(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 37(49) 3(52) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 36(59) 2(61) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 27(69) 1(70) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 1(37) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 3(54) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 40(55) 3(58) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 2(27) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 39(60) 1(61) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 2(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 28(58) X(58) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 2(44) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 1(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 18(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 37(58) 1(59) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) X(33) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) X(24) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 23(23) 39(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) HAVANA 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 30(30) 25(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 62(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 72 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-08-23 22:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232054 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE HAITI * INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA... ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-23 19:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231744 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Conditions appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while the system meanders or drifts northward a few hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure area which formed earlier this morning a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better defined. Conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while it moves slowly northwestward, near or parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-23 19:42:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 231742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located over the Windward Passage between Haiti and Cuba, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Marco, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-08-23 19:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231740 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...LAURA HEADING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican Republic and has discontinued the warning along the north coast of the Dominican Republic east of Samana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of the Haiti * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Andros Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near Cuba. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Jamaica: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum amounts of 6 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area tonight through Monday evening. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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