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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-22 13:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 221138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Storm Marco, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased this morning in associaiton with a tropical wave near the the Cabo Verde Islands. Additional development is unlikely to occur as environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable as the system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-22 13:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 221138 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally eastward for the next couple of days. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week when the system is expected to slow and meander off the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another area of low pressure is likely to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. A tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward or northward, near or parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && For additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-22 11:26:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220926 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 Corrected status at 96 and 120 h Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters. Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast. While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco, although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track lies near the various consensus models. Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.6N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-22 11:24:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220923 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CORRECTED STATUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 65.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-22 11:09:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 09:09:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 09:24:49 GMT
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