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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-05-12 16:03:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 121403 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics

2020-04-26 16:40:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Apr 2020 14:40:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Apr 2020 14:40:09 GMT

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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-04-26 16:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Deep convection has been waning quickly in the southeastern quadrant since the previous advisory, and the system barely met Dvorak criteria for identifying it as a tropical cyclone at 1200 UTC. Given that the 0446 UTC ASCAT-A overpass mentioned in the previous discussion revealed a fairly sizable area of 28-30 kt winds in the northeastern quadrant, there might be one or two 30-kt vectors remaining despite the recent decline in the convective pattern, and thus the intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/08 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to gradually turn the cyclone toward the west-northwest later today and then westward by tonight, with a westward motion being maintained thereafter until the system dissipates by late Monday. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models Deep-layer dry air and cooler sea-surface temperatures, combined with strong westerly shear of 25-30 kt, should continue to erode what little bit of convection remains, causing the system to rapidly degenerate into a remnant low by this afternoon or evening. The low is then expected to dissipate by Monday night. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 16.8N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-04-26 16:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 261438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 1500 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012020)

2020-04-26 16:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 the center of One-E was located near 15.7, -118.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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