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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-27 10:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 270857 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 5 12(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 X 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 7(25) 2(27) X(27) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) 1(25) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 2(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 3(29) 1(30) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 22(30) 2(32) 1(33) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 35(47) 12(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 4(48) 1(49) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 47(57) 7(64) X(64) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) X(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 53(63) 8(71) X(71) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 4(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 54(76) 2(78) X(78) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 2(46) X(46) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 64(76) 17(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 29(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) X(46) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 13(53) 1(54) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 8(79) X(79) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 6(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 38(77) 3(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) 3(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 3(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 62(67) 11(78) 1(79) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 63(71) 9(80) X(80) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 7(50) X(50) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 16(62) 1(63) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 56(60) 12(72) 1(73) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 10(39) X(39) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 59(63) 11(74) X(74) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 9(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 6(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) 2(33) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 15(49) 1(50) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 12(51) 1(52) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 9(53) 1(54) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 11(36) 1(37) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 1(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) X(35) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 1(26) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 28(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 37 22(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ISLE OF PINES 34 87 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLE OF PINES 50 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLE OF PINES 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-27 10:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270857 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Radar data from Grand Cayman and satellite imagery indicate that Ida is becoming better organized just to the north of Grand Cayman. The convection has become more concentrated near the center, and the radar data is showing increasing curved banding. In addition, the pressure at Grand Cayman fell to 1003 mb, showing that the central pressure is lower than observed by the aircraft mission yesterday afternoon. Based on a combination of the Grand Cayman observations and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Ida near 12Z. After the earlier wobbling, Ida seems to have resumed a northwestward motion of 320/13. A mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving on a general northwestward track for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba this afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Although some model timing differences remain, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the previous forecast through 48 h based on the initial location. However, the 60 and 72 h positions are similar to the previous forecast, and thus there is no significant change to the forecast landfall area in Louisiana at this time. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120 miles. There continues to be some southwesterly shear affecting Ida due to the storm's location between an upper-level trough to the west and an upper-level anticyclone to the east. Some decrease in the shear is expected during the next 24 h, and that, combined with a moist environment and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow steady to rapid strengthening until the cyclone makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. The new intensity forecast is slightly stronger than the previous forecast, and it now calls for Ida to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt before landfall. It should be noted that this intensity is lower than that forecast by the HMON model, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Florida State Superensemble. After landfall, Ida should weaken as it moves through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys. Based on the available guidance, there remains higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will approach and impact the Gulf coast during the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the Cayman Islands, and they are expected in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 4. Ida is also expected to produce heavy rains across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley starting Sunday into Monday, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH 24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-27 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Ida was located near 20.0, -81.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-27 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 81.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located by weather radar on Grand Cayman near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two, and to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). Grand Cayman Island recently reported a pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-27 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270856 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 81.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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