je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-27 01:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 262333 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ida, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 650 miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend. The system is expected to move slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before it moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward for another day or so and then turn northward over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ida are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ida are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-26 23:16:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:20 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Ida was located near 18.0, -79.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
ida
Tropical Storm Ida Update Statement
2021-08-26 23:16:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT64 KNHC 262116 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: statement
update
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-26 22:51:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262051 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 The overall satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has continued to gradually improve today. Visible imagery and very recent observations from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the circulation has continued to become better defined. In addition, the convective activity has become a little better organized in a band around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation, and the system is likely near tropical storm strength. However, the initial intensity remains 30 kt pending the aircraft fully sampling the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 325/12 kt. The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance continues to take the system northwestward around the southwestern side of well-established deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move over portions of western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Although the track guidance envelope has tightened this cycle, increasing confidence in the overall forecast scenario, some shifts in the track are still likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center, and the average NHC track forecast error at day 3 is around 120 miles. The lastest NHC track forecast is close to the previous official forecast, and lies between the TCVA and HCCA consensus aids. There is some evidence of some light to moderate southerly shear over the system, but with the cyclone moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea the shear should not hinder intensification, with steady strengthening anticipated during the next 12 to 24 hours. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, it will be traversing a warm eddy, and this feature, combined with a favorable upper-level wind pattern and a moist atmosphere, is likely to result in steady to rapid strengthening on Saturday and Saturday night. The NHC intensity forecast again brings the system to near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the global model guidance that has consistently showed significant deepening of the system over the Gulf of Mexico over the past several model cycles. Therefore, as mentioned this morning, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Friday. Dangerous storm surge is possible Friday in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow. 2. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, where there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday, especially along the coast of Louisiana. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later tonight or Friday morning. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 18.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 19.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 23.7N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 25.6N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 31.9N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 34.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Ida Graphics
2021-08-26 22:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 20:46:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 21:23:41 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
ida
Sites : [290] [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] [296] [297] [298] [299] [300] [301] [302] [303] [304] [305] [306] [307] [308] [309] next »