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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-28 04:44:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280243 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Nora's cloud pattern has not become much better organized since earlier today. The central convection has diminished, but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation. Upper-level outflow appears to be fairly well-defined, with convective banding features most prominent over the southern portion of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 55 kt, so the advisory intensity will be held at that value for now. The storm has been moving a little to the east of the previous track over the past few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is still northwestward, or 325/9 kt. Nora should move on a northwestward or north-northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days on the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward as the ridge to its north weakens. The official forecast track has been nudged just a bit to the east of the previous one during the next 72 hours or so, but not as far east as the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCE. Nora is expected to be in a moist, low-shear environment for the next few days, so the atmospheric conditions should favor intensification into a hurricane. Nonetheless, the majority of the intensity guidance does not show much strengthening beyond 24 hours, probably due to land interaction. The official intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or so, and is similar to the previous one. This is close to the LGEM guidance based on the ECMWF global model fields. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in the future strength of Nora because of the possible influence of land. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-28 04:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 16.3, -105.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-28 04:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 105.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 105.1 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area through Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-28 04:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280240 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 22(32) 25(57) 3(60) X(60) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 25(35) 30(65) 2(67) 1(68) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 29(33) 11(44) 1(45) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) 6(35) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 14(36) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 4(27) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 23(26) 11(37) 1(38) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 21(34) 2(36) X(36) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 33(36) 54(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 45(46) 5(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MAZATLAN 34 X 6( 6) 37(43) 21(64) 5(69) X(69) X(69) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X 24(24) 36(60) 1(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 3 71(74) 10(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) P VALLARTA 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 79 17(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 74 9(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MANZANILLO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 14 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ZIHUATANEJO 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-28 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280234 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 105.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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