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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-08-28 02:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 280037 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 27 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nora, located a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics

2021-08-28 01:48:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 23:48:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 21:29:17 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)

2021-08-28 01:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 16.0, -105.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 9A

2021-08-28 01:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 272346 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 105.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 570 MI...815 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.1 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area through Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Toward the middle and later part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-08-28 01:29:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 272329 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, located over western Cuba. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a couple of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development, however, a tropical depression could still form by early next week. By midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through tonight and Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has developed in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, shower and thunderstorm activity is limited near the center of the low. Some additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form Saturday or Saturday night before it moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward through tonight, then turn northward Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west African coast by the middle of next week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto

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