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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-14 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO ENGANO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 57.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-14 13:48:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 11:48:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 09:23:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-14 13:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED NEAR WESTERN CUBA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 the center of Fred was located near 23.0, -82.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 19A
2021-08-14 13:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141146 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED NEAR WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 82.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-14 13:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located near the northern coast of western Cuba, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Grace, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Grace are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Grace are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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