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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-13 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 131448 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 1 23(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MARATHON FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) KEY WEST FL 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) X(25) 1(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) 1(31) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 2(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) 1(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-13 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 the center of Fred was located near 22.3, -78.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 16
2021-08-13 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 765 WTNT31 KNHC 131448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 78.4W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, and Holguin. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, and Camaguey * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Interest in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or near the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 131447 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS AND VILLA CLARA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA... AND HOLGUIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. INTEREST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 78.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 78.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 81.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.6N 82.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.7N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 78.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-13 13:56:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 11:56:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 09:23:04 GMT
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