je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-13 01:30:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 122329 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Linda, located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-12 22:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 20:55:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 21:23:06 GMT
Tags: graphics
fred
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-12 22:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 122053 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Fred remains poorly organized at this time. While the low-level circulation looks more closed than it did earlier, the center is broad and may have multiple vortices rotating around it. Also, while convection has increased from earlier today, there is only minimal convection near the center and little evidence of banding. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, with those winds likely occurring in squalls to the northeast of the center. Fred has slowed its forward speed, with the initial motion now 295/10. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the northeast should steer Fred west-northwestward for the first 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone approaches the western periphery of the ridge. By 96-120 h, a northward motion is expected as Fred moves into a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance has shifted westward since the previous advisory, most notably after about 24 h. Thus, that portion of the new forecast track has also been nudged a little westward, but it still lies to the east of the various consensus models. Fred remains in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. The shear is expected to persist during the next day or so, and this combined with the current disorganization of the system should prevent significant strengthening during that time. After that, there remains disagreement between the global models on the evolution of the upper-level trough over Florida and the upper-level anticyclone southeast of Fred. Some shear is likely to continue, but there may be a period of more conducive conditions from 36-72 h. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for slow strengthening through the first 36 h, with a little faster strengthening from 36-72 h. With that being said, the forecast 45-kt peak intensity is near the high end of the intensity guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 21.3N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 24.0N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 25.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 26.4N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
fred
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-12 22:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Fred was located near 21.3, -75.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
fred
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-12 22:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 122049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 75.3W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas. The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight and Friday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
advisory
fred
Sites : [445] [446] [447] [448] [449] [450] [451] [452] [453] [454] [455] [456] [457] [458] [459] [460] [461] [462] [463] [464] next »