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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-13 13:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131151 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Aug 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Linda, located several hundred miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-13 13:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 the center of Fred was located near 22.2, -77.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-08-13 13:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 131151 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 77.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-13 13:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131150 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located near the north-central coast of Cuba. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized since yesterday near an area of low pressure located about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 20 mph. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, since strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely to spread across those areas over the weekend, regardless of the system's development. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-13 10:44:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 08:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 08:44:20 GMT
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