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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-13 19:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 17:31:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 15:22:58 GMT
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-13 19:15:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
636 ABPZ20 KNHC 131715 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Linda, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-13 19:14:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131714 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located near the north-central coast of Cuba. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-13 17:24:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 13 the center of Seven was located near 15.3, -49.3 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-13 17:24:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131524 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 Corrected to indicate issuance time of intermediate advisory. ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 49.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Brennan
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