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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-12 10:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 763 WTNT41 KNHC 120835 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is stretched out and seems to resemble a trough at the surface. The system is now emerging back over water and is located between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Most of the associated showers and thunderstorms are located to the east of the estimated center, with heavy rains continuing over portions of Hispaniola. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but there is limited data to confirm this. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data from both planes will be helpful in estimating Fred's strength and structure. Fred appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A subtropical ridge currently situated to the north of Fred over the western Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward for the next 36 to 48 hours. This motion should take the storm just north of or across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas during that time period. By the weekend, the models suggest that Fred will be rounding the western periphery of the ridge, which will likely a cause a slow down and a gradual turn to the northwest and then the north across portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC track forecast remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, near the typically more skillful global models and consensus aids. Fred is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the next day or so, and those unfavorable winds combined with some land interaction with Cuba should prevent the system from strengthening much, if at all, during that time period. The shear could lessen on Friday and since SSTs are very warm and there is abundant environmental moisture, some strengthening seems likely when Fred is approaching the Florida Keys and south Florida Friday night and Saturday. After that time, the intensity forecast becomes more complicated by how much land interaction there will be with Florida. Since the official forecast shows a track over the eastern Gulf, additional strengthening is predicted before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida Big Bend region or Florida panhandle late in the weekend or early next week. However, that part of the intensity forecast, since it will be very track dependent, is more uncertain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Continued heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning, and in portions of Cuba later today. 3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. These conditions are expected to spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.2N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-12 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 120835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 1(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 13(26) 1(27) X(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 1(22) 1(23) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 3(25) X(25) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) 1(25) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 2(23) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 3(23) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 6(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-12 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVES BACK OVER WATER... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Fred was located near 20.2, -73.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-12 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVES BACK OVER WATER... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 73.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 73.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-12 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 73.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 73.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 73.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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