je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-12 01:21:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
421 ABPZ20 KNHC 112321 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Linda, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-11 22:55:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 20:55:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 20:55:46 GMT
Tags: graphics
kevin
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-11 22:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112054 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that Kevin continues to have a large circulation, but that the deep convection is well-removed from the tropical storm's center. A blend of the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB suggest that the system remains with an intensity of 40 kt, which is also supported by 1723Z SATCON estimate of 38 kt. Kevin's short-term movement has been a bit more westward, perhaps due to pulling by the remaining deep convection restricted to its southwestern quadrant. The longer-term initial motion is estimated as 290 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical storm is primarily being steered along the southwestern periphery of a deep tropospheric ridge. However, as the deep convection ceases completely in a day or two, the system will increasingly be steered by the lower tropospheric flow. A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated until dissipation. The official track forecast is based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), which is midway between the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions but substantially faster than the mesoscale hurricane model output. This new forecast is slightly westward of the previous advisory, due to the somewhat more westward position at the initial time. The tropical storm has already moved across the 26C SST isotherm and is moving toward even cooler water, drier air, and a more stable atmosphere. Additionally, Kevin is being affected by moderate NE tropospheric vertical wind shear. The large system should gradually weaken under these increasingly hostile conditions and it's likely that Kevin will become a remnant low by late Thursday. The official intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN statistical scheme and is nearly the same as the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 21.1N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tags: number
discussion
kevin
storm
Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-11 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 112052 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-11 22:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN CONTINUES AS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Kevin was located near 21.1, -117.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
kevin
storm
tropical
Sites : [460] [461] [462] [463] [464] [465] [466] [467] [468] [469] [470] [471] [472] [473] [474] [475] [476] [477] [478] [479] next »