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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-12 04:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120243 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-12 01:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 112348 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Fred, located inland over the central portion of Hispaniola. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-12 01:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 23:48:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 21:23:20 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-12 01:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Fred was located near 19.2, -71.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-08-12 01:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112347 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 71.6W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast to Cabo Frances Viejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located by satellite-derived wind data near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 71.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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