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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-10-10 10:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100858 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The system we have been monitoring over the last several days off the southern coast of Mexico has been gradually improving in organization. An earlier ASCAT-A pass at 0257 UTC indicated that a closed surface vortex was developing, especially after investigating the ambiguity wind solutions from the instrument. In addition, the 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak from TAFB was at T2.0/30 kt, which is in good agreement with the peak winds (29 kt) from the earlier scatterometer data. Since that time, convection near the estimated center has only increased in coverage and intensity. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on TD16-E, the first tropical cyclone in the East Pacific basin in nearly a month. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer and satellite intensity estimate. The current motion of the depression is estimated at 290/15 kt, though some uncertainty exists given the system is in its formative stages. At present, the cyclone is situated on the equatorward side of an expensive mid-level ridge centered over Mexico that stretches westward into the East Pacific. This ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest over then next day or so. Thereafter, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the western United States, creating a pronounced weakness in the mid-level ridge steering the system. The net result of this synoptic pattern change is that the tropical cyclone will likely bend sharply right as the ridge becomes oriented to its east, leading to a turn north to then northeastward in the 48-72 hour forecast. This track evolution would likely steer the system to the mainland Mexican coast in around 96 hours. The latest track guidance is in pretty good agreement on the general track, though investigating the GFS and ECMWF ensembles solutions reveals significant uncertainty in the along-track spread of the current forecast track. The initial NHC track forecast has been chosen to lie near the consensus aids, splitting the difference between the TVCA and HCCA solutions. The environment over the depression appears quite favorable for intensification, with low shear (around 10 kt) high mid-level moisture (around 70 percent) and warm sea-surface temperatures (29-30 C) expected to persist for the next three days. It may take 12-24 hours for an inner core to become established, but after this structural change occurs, the system appears poised for substantial intensification. In fact, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates a 44 percent chance of a 65 knot increase in intensity over the next 72 hours. The first NHC intensity forecast follows suit, showing a peak intensity of 95 kt in 72 hours. It is worth noting that this intensity forecast is less than some of the more bullish guidance, including the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and this initial forecast could be conservative. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-10-10 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100852 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 34(64) X(64) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 38(65) X(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) X(24) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) X(58) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 24(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 55(63) X(63) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) 15N 105W 34 40 15(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 105W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 62(85) 3(88) X(88) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 5(58) X(58) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 6(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 39(76) 1(77) X(77) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-10 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...STRENGTHENING FORECAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.3, -102.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-10-10 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...STRENGTHENING FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 102.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 102.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual slowdown in forward motion with a turn to the northwest is anticipated over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next several days and the depression could be near hurricane intensity by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-10-10 10:48:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 125 WTPZ21 KNHC 100848 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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