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Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-11 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAMELA HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 the center of Pamela was located near 17.2, -108.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 7
2021-10-11 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112054 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 108.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the current Watch areas later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 108.5 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into this evening. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur late tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Pamela is forecast remain a major hurricane until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-10-11 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 112054 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 53(56) 6(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 45(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 2 58(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 110W 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-10-11 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 647 WTPZ21 KNHC 112053 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N 97.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-11 20:20:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
761 ABNT20 KNHC 111732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce showers and a couple of thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system has not developed a well-defined center. The potential for development of this system has decreased, and strong upper-level winds should prohibit further development on Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Another tropical wave located south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to support development of this system for the next day or two. However, some gradual development is possible beginning on Wednesday when the system nears the southeastern Bahamas. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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