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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 3
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern portions of Baja California del Sur and in west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Pamela. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-10 19:05:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101704 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a large, non-tropical low pressure area located about 80 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated the low earlier today found that the system was still producing a small area of gale-force winds just offshore the North Carolina outer banks. However, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to decrease the chance for further development of this system. The low is forecast to move slowly northeastward today, with the center remaining just offshore the eastern North Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. Interests in that area should continue to monitor the progress of this system and refer to local National Weather Service office products for more information. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North Carolina during the next day or so. Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the system will produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-10 19:02:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101702 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E, located less than 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics
2021-10-10 16:42:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 14:42:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 15:22:40 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-10 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...COULD IMPACT A PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.8, -104.7 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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