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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-11 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11 the center of Fred was located near 17.6, -67.6 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-08-11 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110537 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 67.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 67.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center nears the coast of the Dominican Republic later this morning. Some weakening is likely thereafter while the system interacts with Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next few hours, and in portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fred Graphics
2021-08-11 07:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 05:37:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 03:23:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-11 05:25:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110325 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Corrected direction of motion in the second paragraph. Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated at 320/7 kt, attempting to follow the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days as the large cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to the track guidance consensus. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient, with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Fred Graphics
2021-08-11 04:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:59:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:59:47 GMT
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