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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-11 04:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-11 02:03:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 047 WTNT31 KNHC 110002 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A... Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 Corrected direction of motion in summary section. ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data from San Juan near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 66.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Data from the aircraft and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft and earlier surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km), mainly northeast of the center. During the past few hours, a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow observing station at Sandy Point on the western end of St. Croix. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was reported near Yabucoa in southeastern Puerto Rico. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2021-08-11 02:03:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 00:03:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:23:31 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-11 01:56:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102356 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located just south of Puerto Rico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of of showers and thunderstorms just west of its axis. Some gradual development is possible over the next several days while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-11 01:27:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102327 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Linda, located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Linda are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Linda are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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