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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-06-19 22:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 192038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-19 22:37:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:37:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:37:40 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-19 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 20.3, -104.1 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 104.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 104.1W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located inland near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 104.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland across the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A station near the Nevado de Colima volcano in the state of Jalisco recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will continue to spread inland across portions of west-central Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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