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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-20 01:46:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 23:46:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 21:22:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-20 01:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Claudette was located near 32.4, -87.7 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-06-20 01:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192345 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 87.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 87.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water well to the south of the center. Claudette is expected to weaken a little tonight, however, it is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across eastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas. The storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
2021-06-19 22:40:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:40:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:40:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-19 22:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores's circulation, and the associated weather, continue to move farther inland over west-central Mexico, but it's hard to tell how much of a surface circulation remains over the mountainous topography of the region. Deep convection continues to develop near the estimated center, likely with the help of some orographic lift of onshore flow. Based on a typical decay rate over land, Dolores's intensity is set at 45 kt, but there is higher-than-normal uncertainty in this estimate given the effects of the terrain. The heading remains toward the north-northwest (345 degrees), but the speed has increased to 15 kt, likely due to the mid-level circulation rotating around a mid-level low centered near Socorro Island. If the surface circulation has not yet been mangled by the mountainous terrain, it will soon, and the mid-level circulation should then continue north-northwestward through tonight. The new NHC forecast shows continued rapid weakening and depicts Dolores as a remnant low in 12 hours, but in reality the circulation may have dissipated by that time. This forecast reasoning follows the quick dissipation of vorticity indicated in the global model fields. Even though Dolores is moving farther inland, the coastal watches and warnings are being maintained on this advisory until there is no longer a threat of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.3N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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