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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-05-15 13:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151131 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat May 15 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 15, 8, and 4, respectively. The list of names for 2021 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation ------------------------------------------------------------- Andres ahn-DRASE Marty MAR-tee Blanca BLAHN-kah Nora NOOR-ruh Carlos KAR-loess Olaf OH-lahf Dolores deh-LOOR-ess Pamela PAM-eh-luh Enrique ahn-REE-kay Rick rik Felicia fa-LEE-sha Sandra SAN-druh Guillermo gee-YER-mo Terry TAIR-ree Hilda HILL-duh Vivian VIH-vee-uhn Ignacio eeg-NAH-see-oh Waldo WAHL-doh Jimena he-MAY-na Xina ZEE-nah Kevin KEH-vin York york Linda LIHN-duh Zelda ZEL-dah One tropical storm, Andres, already formed earlier this month. The next named storm that develops this season will be Blanca. This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and watch/warning products that previously had been issued only for tropical cyclones. Potential tropical cyclones will share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E", "Three-E", etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5. All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text products can be found at https://www.hurricanes.govaboutnhcprod.shtml, while more information about NHC graphical products can be found at https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select NHC products are issued. Information about our east Pacific Twitter feed is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
Tags: north
weather
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eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-05-15 13:28:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
642 ABNT20 KNHC 151128 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2021. This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-05-11 15:06:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091502 TWOEP Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM PDT Sun May 9 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Andres located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2021. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Depression Andres Graphics
2021-05-11 10:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 08:42:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 09:22:42 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
andres
Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-05-11 10:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 The harsh surrounding upper wind environment has taken a toll on Andres. The last few fragments of the depression's deep convection dissipated around 1000 PM MDT (0400 UTC) with the exposed center of Andres now traversing slightly cooler oceanic temperatures. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt based on a 0343 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The strong shear and decreasing SSTs are likely to cause Andres to become a remnant low later this morning and degenerate into a surface trough late Wednesday night. The depression is moving westward, or 270/6 kt while embedded in the low-level tradewind flow. Vertically shallow Andres and its remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, and is close to the TVCE eastern Pacific consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.9N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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