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Tropical Storm ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-28 17:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 May 2015 14:19:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 May 2015 15:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-05-28 16:53:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281453 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become better organized with an increase in banding and a developing central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt tropical storm. The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific. This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the next several days, and should cause Andres to move west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains near the multi-model consensus for now. Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60% chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce weakening by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-05-28 16:18:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281418 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 27(38) 7(45) X(45) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-28 16:18:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu May 28 the center of ANDRES was located near 11.6, -111.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Public Advisory Number 2
2015-05-28 16:18:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281418 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 ...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a hurricane late Friday or Friday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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