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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 69

2017-09-22 16:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221442 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 69 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 The large circulation of Jose has not changed much during the past several hours, with a small burst of moderate-to-deep convection rotating around the center. Satellite classifications support reducing the winds to 40 kt for this advisory. Surface observations are still showing sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the warning areas, so advisories will be maintained on Jose. These winds should diminish this afternoon or evening according to all of the model guidance as Jose gradually weakens. The intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, showing a slow decay of the winds over cold waters, which is well supported by the latest global model guidance. Jose has been erratically moving during the past 24 hours, with a southwestward drift most recently noted. The system is expected to stay trapped in light steering flow and move little for the next couple of days, then take a more westward turn by day 3 as the circulation of Maria and a ridge over the northeastern United States steer the weak cyclone. However, all models suggest it will be quite weak by day 3 and open up into a trough on day 4. Only small changes were made to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring over portions of extreme southeastern New England. These conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.5N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/0000Z 39.4N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/1200Z 39.3N 69.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 38.9N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 38.8N 68.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 69

2017-09-22 16:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 221441 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 69 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLIP NY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-22 16:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Jose was located near 39.5, -69.4 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 69

2017-09-22 16:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221440 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Advisory Number 69 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 ...JOSE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 69.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 69.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Jose is expected to meander off the coast of New England for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. Rainfall: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of up to one inch across Cape Cod and the offshore Islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through early Saturday. When including rain that has already fallen, storm total accumulations could reach 6 inches on Nantucket. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Advisory Number 69

2017-09-22 16:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221439 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 69 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 69.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 69.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.4N 69.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.3N 69.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 38.9N 68.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.8N 68.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 69.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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