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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-22 01:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE MEANDERING OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Jose was located near 39.6, -68.1 with movement . The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 66A
2017-09-22 01:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212335 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 66A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...JOSE MEANDERING OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 68.1W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OF 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 68.1 West. Jose is drifting westward near 2 mph (4 km/h). The system is expected to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern New England during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jose is expected to become post-tropical on Friday. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) was reported at the Nantucket airport within the past few hours. An unofficial observing site in Vineyard Haven on Martha's Vineyard has reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) within the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Cape Cod and the offshore islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-21 22:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 20:43:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 21:25:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 66
2017-09-21 22:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Jose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and west of the center. The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of extreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day. An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and since the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the initial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value. Cool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause Jose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images suggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, or sooner. The intensity models are in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one. Jose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline during the past several hours. Since the cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and in general agreement with the consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from around 1500 UTC. The forecast wind radii follows the guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 39.6N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 39.5N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/0600Z 39.2N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/1800Z 39.0N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/1800Z 38.9N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 66
2017-09-21 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 212035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 66 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WORCESTER MA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BOSTON MA 34 6 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 34 16 6(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 9 4(13) 3(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW LONDON CT 34 7 4(11) 3(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 9 5(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLIP NY 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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