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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 65A
2017-09-21 19:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211733 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 65A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 67.9W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 67.9 West. Jose is stationary, and the system is expected to meander well offshore of the coast of southeast New England for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jose is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or on Friday. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 38 mph (62 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at the Nantucket Airport. An unofficial observing site in Vineyard Haven on Martha's Vineyard recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next few days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Friday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...additional 1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...additional 2 to 4 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-21 16:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 14:43:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:22:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 65
2017-09-21 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211437 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 65 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Satellite and radar data suggest that Jose is gradually spinning down. The convective bands are relatively shallow, except over the western quadrants where the cloud tops are a bit colder. The outer-most bands are very near the offshore islands of southeastern New England, where there have been reports of tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Jose earlier this morning, and a combination of the flight-level winds, SFMR observations, and dropsonde data support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt. The intensity forecast appears straightforward. Cool waters, dry air, and an expected increase in wind shear should cause Jose to steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the next 24 hours. The post-tropical system is predicted to degenerate into a trough by day 4, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one, and it lies close to the consensus models. As previously predicted, Jose has become stationary. Since the storm is expected to remain in weak steering currents for the next few days, Jose is forecast to meander off the coast of southeastern New England until it dissipates. This track prediction is not too different from the previous one, and it lies near the middle of the guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next few days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 39.6N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 39.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/1200Z 39.4N 69.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/1200Z 39.1N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 65
2017-09-21 16:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 211436 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 65 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WORCESTER MA 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BOSTON MA 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) HYANNIS MA 34 14 6(20) 4(24) 1(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) NANTUCKET MA 34 23 9(32) 4(36) 2(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 8 5(13) 3(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NEW LONDON CT 34 6 4(10) 4(14) 1(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 8 6(14) 4(18) 1(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) ISLIP NY 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-21 16:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Jose was located near 39.6, -68.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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