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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 67

2017-09-22 04:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 220246 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 67 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BOSTON MA 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 7 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW LONDON CT 34 5 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 7 8(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-22 04:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE BECOMES POST TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Jose was located near 39.5, -68.4 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 67

2017-09-22 04:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Advisory Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...JOSE BECOMES POST TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 68.4W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jose is slowly moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little motion is expected for the next 48 hours, and Jose is forecast to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern New England during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next two days. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at the Nantucket airport. An unofficial observing site in Vineyard Haven on Martha's Vineyard has reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) within the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across Cape Cod and the offshore islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket bringing storm total accumulations towards 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Advisory Number 67

2017-09-22 04:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220245 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 67 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 68.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......190NE 130SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 68.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 68.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.3N 68.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.1N 67.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.8N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 68.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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