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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Graphics

2017-09-22 13:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 11:56:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 09:24:35 GMT

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-22 13:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 8:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Jose was located near 39.7, -69.0 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 68A

2017-09-22 13:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221154 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 68A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 69.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 69.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Jose is expected to meander well off the coast of New England for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next 48 hours. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial site on Martha's Vineyard. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. Rainfall: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of up to one inch across Cape Cod and the offshore Islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through early Saturday. When including rain that has already fallen, storm total accumulations could reach 6 inches on Nantucket. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Graphics

2017-09-22 10:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 08:44:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 09:24:35 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 68

2017-09-22 10:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220839 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 Since the last advisory, a small burst of deep convection has been observed near the center of Jose. The cyclone is still embedded within a dry environment and located over cold SSTs, so it will be a little surprising if the convection is maintained for an extended period of time this morning. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone remains 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, and these winds are likely occuring over open water well to the northwest of Jose's center. Surface observations on Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island indicate that tropical storm conditions are still occuring in some locations along the coast. The prior ASCAT pass also showed a wide area of tropical-storm-force winds just offshore of Cape Cod, and there is still some opportunity for these winds to reach the coast this morning. Therefore, the tropical storm warnings remain in effect, and the NHC will continue to issue advisories on Jose. No significant change has been made to the track or intensity forecast. All of the dynamical models remain in good agreement that Jose will remain trapped in weak steering flow while gradually spinning down for the next several days. Although the cyclone has been drifting west for the past 12 hours, a slow turn back toward the east should begin sometime later today and continue through at least day 3. The NHC forecast track is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue this morning. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 39.7N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1800Z 39.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0600Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1800Z 39.2N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/0600Z 38.9N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 38.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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