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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-25 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Aug 2016 20:41:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Aug 2016 20:38:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-08-25 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252038 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 Strong southwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Gaston. The cloud pattern has become more assymetric with all of the deep core convection located north and east of the center. This was confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave overpass that showed significant southwest to northeast tilt between the low- and mid-level centers. Objective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased and subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial wind speed of 55 kt. A large upper-level low near 23N 54W that is moving southwestward is expected to continue to produce an unfavorable upper-level environment over Gaston for another 12 to 18 hours. Some additional weakening is possible tonight, but the official NHC forecast shows little change in strength through Friday. After that time, Gaston should be moving around the northern portion of the upper-low and into a more favarable upper-level wind pattern. This combined with warm SSTs and a moist atmosphere should allow Gaston to re-strengthen over the weekend and once again become a hurricane. The updated NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the previous advisory after 36 hours, and is in good agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance. The initial motion remains northwestward at 15 kt. Gaston should move northwestward during the next day or so around a mid-level ridge over the east-central Atlantic. In 36 to 48 hours, a ridge is forecast to build to the north of Gaston, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. Early next week, the ridge is forecast to weaken and Gaston is expected to turn northward, then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies in 4 to 5 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first 48 hours, but there is some spread as to what longitude recurvature begins. The ECMWF shows a slower motion near the end of the forecast period and a track along the eastern side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS and GFS ensemble mean are along the western edge. The NHC track foreast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is in closest agreement with UKMET, FSSE, and multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 21.6N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 23.4N 47.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 25.5N 49.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 27.0N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 28.1N 54.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 31.8N 57.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 34.0N 55.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-25 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BY SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 25 the center of GASTON was located near 21.6, -45.5 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 13
2016-08-25 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 252038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 ...GASTON WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 45.5W ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 45.5 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight or Friday but re-strengthening is anticipated to begin Friday night, and Gaston is forecast to become a hurricane again on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-08-25 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 252038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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