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Summary for Remnants of SONIA (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-04 15:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SONIA DISSIPATES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 7:00 AM PST Mon Nov 4 the center of SONIA was located near 25.5, -106.5 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
Remnants of SONIA Public Advisory Number 14
2013-11-04 15:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041430 TCPEP3 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 ...SONIA DISSIPATES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 106.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF SONIA HAS DISSIPATED. AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF SONIA WERE ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SONIA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAINFALL OVER MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SONIA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of SONIA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2013-11-04 15:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041430 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 106.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 106.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 106.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SONIA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression SONIA Graphics
2013-11-04 10:09:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2013 08:37:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2013 09:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression SONIA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-11-04 09:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040835 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500 UTC...AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME. NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED INLAND...SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW POSITION...SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE IT REACHED LAND...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT. AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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