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Tropical Depression Barry Public Advisory Number 20
2019-07-15 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
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Tropical Depression Barry Public Advisory Number 19
2019-07-15 06:28:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
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Tropical Depression Barry Graphics
2019-07-14 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 20:35:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 21:22:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Barry Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-07-14 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry's convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to locate in radar imagery. Surface observations from the Shreveport, Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry's position. Although sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana (PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry's circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds. Therefore, Barry's intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA. Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Barry. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday. Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central Louisiana. 2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana. However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 32.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 35.3N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 36.8N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 38.2N 91.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-07-14 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 142033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 2100 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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