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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-13 17:09:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2013 14:35:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2013 15:05:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-10-13 16:34:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131433 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF OCTAVE. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE AT SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM...FELL TO AS LOW AS 1001.4 MB AROUND 11Z...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE IS BELOW 1000 MB. BASED ON PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CENTER OF OCTAVE TO BE BETTER DETERMINED...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A MORE WESTWARD LOCATION. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR REASONING. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 22N FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AS OCTAVE WEAKENS...THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL FSSE. ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INGESTION OF COOLER AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...OCTAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING BY MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD STRIP AWAY ANY REMAINING CONVECTION...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 18.3N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 21.7N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 23.3N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 24.3N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-13 16:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 the center of OCTAVE was located near 18.3, -112.1 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 3
2013-10-13 16:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 131433 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 ...OCTAVE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 112.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-10-13 16:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 131433 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 11 20 33 40 NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 27 37 42 44 42 NA TROPICAL STORM 93 66 49 35 23 18 NA HURRICANE 2 3 3 3 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 3 3 3 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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