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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-10-15 16:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151436 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS...AND TWO ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL CONTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND ALSO TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ARE BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DURING THAT TIME DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE RESULT IS THAT OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...AND MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Depression OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)

2013-10-15 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 the center of OCTAVE was located near 25.4, -110.8 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 11

2013-10-15 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 151436 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 ...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 110.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 11

2013-10-15 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 151436 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 110.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 110.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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