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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-15 10:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 the center of OCTAVE was located near 25.5, -112.0 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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octave
Tropical Depression OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 10
2013-10-15 10:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 112.0W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-15 07:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 05:33:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 03:06:45 GMT
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octave
Summary for Tropical Depression OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-15 07:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED... As of 11:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 the center of OCTAVE was located near 25.7, -112.1 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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