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Tropical Storm Octave Graphics
2019-10-18 04:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 02:35:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 03:31:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-18 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone located nearly 1500 mi southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is 2.5/35 kt. Furthermore, late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier today showed a few 30-35 kt wind vectors in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the intensity estimate is 35 kt, and the system is now Octave, the 15th named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The tropical storm unexpectedly accelerated southwestward for a brief period earlier this afternoon, but it has since resumed a slow westward crawl. Octave is caught in a region of nearly zero net steering flow, and is therefore expected to move very little for the foreseeable future. Due to Octave's jump to the southwest, the NHC track forecast has been generally adjusted in that direction, and is based primarily on a blend of the the GFS and ECMWF global models, both of which call for a slow looping track through 120 h. Octave is located in an environment that could support slight additional strengthening, as shown by the statistical guidance, though the dynamical models suggest it has already peaked. Upper-level convergence and a drier surrounding environment are forecast to become inhibiting factors to the cyclone's convection in about 48 h, and it could become a remnant low soon after. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted only slightly to account for the higher initial intensity and follows the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 9.8N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-10-18 04:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 2(20) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-18 04:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR DAYS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Octave was located near 9.8, -127.2 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 2
2019-10-18 04:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR DAYS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 127.2W ABOUT 1455 MI...2345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 127.2 West. Octave is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The tropical storm will likely meander with little net movement for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow, but weakening will likely begin by Friday and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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