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Tropical Storm Daniel Graphics
2018-06-25 04:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Jun 2018 02:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Jun 2018 03:25:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-06-25 04:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Daniel's convective structure is slowly degrading. Recent IR imagery indicates that active deep convection is primarily occuring in a single burst, southwest of the tropical storm's center. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on an earlier ASCAT overpass around 1700 UTC, but given the overall degradation of the structure of the cyclone since that time, it is possible this is generous. The tropical storm is quickly approaching the 26 deg C isotherm, so it is likely that Daniel has already reached its peak intensity. All of the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually spin down over the next couple of days, likely losing all deep convection within the next 48 h. Essentially no change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which now calls for Daniel to dissipate by 96 hours. Several recent microwave overpasses suggest that the center of the tropical storm is slightly northeast of the previous estimate. As a result, the official track forecast has been nudged in that direction for the first 24 hours, but is very similar to the previous advisory beyond that time. There is otherwise no change in the reasoning behind the track forecast, and Daniel is still expected to begin a turn toward the northwest by tomorrow as it moves along the eastern edge of a weak mid-level low. Once Daniel becomes a remnant low, it will be steered westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The new official track forecast remains near the middle of the track guidance envelope, close to the consensus models TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.9N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Daniel (EP5/EP052018)
2018-06-25 04:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANIEL LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 the center of Daniel was located near 17.9, -116.4 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Daniel Public Advisory Number 5
2018-06-25 04:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 ...DANIEL LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 116.4W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 116.5 West. Daniel is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest at about the same forward speed is expected to begin overnight. A steady westward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday. The cyclone should continue moving west until it dissipates later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days and Daniel is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Daniel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-06-25 04:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0300 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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