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Tropical Storm Daniel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-06-25 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Daniel (EP5/EP052018)
2018-06-25 16:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANIEL STARTING TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 the center of Daniel was located near 19.0, -117.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Daniel Public Advisory Number 7
2018-06-25 16:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 ...DANIEL STARTING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 117.8W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 117.8 West. Daniel is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a westward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Daniel is expected to weaken to a depression later today or tonight. The cyclone is then forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-06-25 16:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-06-25 10:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250839 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 Cloud tops have been steadily warming since the previous advisory and the overall amount of convection has also been shrinking. However, a small mass of convection has persisted near and over the low-level center, and a 0443Z ASCAT partial pass indicated that the wind field in the western semicircle hadn't changed since the previous overpasses just 12 h prior. Therefore, it is assumed that winds near 40 kt still exists in the unsampled eastern semicircle. The last UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate at 0225Z was 43 kt. Based on the apparent lack of any significant low-level structural change noted in the latest ASCAT data, along with the SATCON estimate, the intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 330/09 kt. Daniel is expected to gradually make a turn toward the northwest within the next 12 h as the small cyclone moves around the eastern periphery of a mid- to upper-level low located about 450 nmi to the west-southwest. As Daniel moves over progressively cooler waters, the weakening cyclone will become vertically more shallow and be steered westward by the low-level easterly tradewind flow on days 2-4. The latest model guidance remains good agreement with this developing track scenario. As a result, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus models TVCN and HCCA. The small cyclone is currently located over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of about 25C, with colder water lying ahead of the system. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to be low, steady weakening and gradual erosion of the central convection is expected throughout the forecast period due to the colder SSTs and a lack of instability, especially after 12-18 hours. Daniel is forecast to weaken to a depression by 24 h, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure system shortly thereafter. However, given the current small and relatively weak circulation, faster weakening could occur than what is currently indicated. The latter scenario is supported by the ECMWF and UKMET models, which show dissipation by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 18.8N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 19.5N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 20.2N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 20.4N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 20.5N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0600Z 20.3N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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