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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-06-25 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0300 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Daniel Graphics
2018-06-24 22:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 20:38:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 20:38:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-06-24 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Daniel continues to generate a curved band of convection near the center, although the cloud tops have warmed notably during the past several hours. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has been increased to that value. The initial and forecast wind radii have also been revised based on the scatterometer data. The initial motion is now 340/10. There is again no change in the track forecast philosophy, as the various dynamical models remain in good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-18 hours, then encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north. This should result in a northwestward turn on Monday and a generally westward motion on Tuesday and beyond. The only appreciable change in the guidance since the last advisory is that the cyclone is forecast to move a little faster. Thus, the official forecast is mostly an update of the previous track with a slightly faster forward speed. Daniel should cross the 26C isotherm in 12 h or less, and the forecast track takes the system over progressively cooler water. Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening after 12 h, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, and dissipate completely between 96-120 h. All of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.9N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 18.1N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 19.2N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 19.8N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Daniel (EP5/EP052018)
2018-06-24 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANIEL A LITTLE STRONGER BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 the center of Daniel was located near 16.9, -116.4 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Daniel Public Advisory Number 4
2018-06-24 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 242033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 ...DANIEL A LITTLE STRONGER BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 116.4W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 116.4 West. Daniel is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a westward motion on Tuesday that will continue through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Daniel is expected to weaken on Monday, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area Tuesday or Wednesday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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