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Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2017-10-29 15:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 291435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 1500 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-10-29 15:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 291431 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 1500 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 77.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 170SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 77.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 170SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 77.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT3/AL182017)

2017-10-29 13:01:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PHILIPPE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM FLORIDA BUT STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 the center of Philippe was located near 27.6, -79.0 with movement NE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 7A

2017-10-29 13:01:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291201 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Corrected locations and distances ...PHILIPPE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM FLORIDA BUT STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 79.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was estimated near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Philippe has accelerated and is now moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue to move quickly away from the Florida east coast and the northwestern Bahamas this morning, and then move over the open western Atlantic by this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by an extratropical low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Recent ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to end in the warning area in Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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