je.st
news
Tag: philippe
Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 6
2017-10-29 04:41:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290340 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 CORRECTED SECOND HEADLINE ...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 82.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 82.1 West. Philippe is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches are expected through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of western and central Cuba, which may lead to life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central Bahamas by Sunday morning. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
2017-10-29 03:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2017 02:47:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2017 02:47:02 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
philippe
tropical
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-10-29 03:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Philippe has a very non-classical structure for a tropical cyclone this evening. A combination of satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observations show that the circulation center is elongated northwest-southeast from southwest of Naples, Florida, to central Cuba with at least three vorticity centers present in this area. The estimated center position is a mean of the multiple vorticity centers, with this position near the region of lowest pressure suggested by the surface observations. Currently, the primary deep convection is located from the northwestern Bahamas southwestward across Cuba into the Caribbean, with a smaller area of convection over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 015/21. A deep-layer trough and developing surface low over the eastern United States should cause Philippe to turn northeastward soon, followed by a rapid northeastward motion across the southern end of the Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic. The cyclone should continue to move around the large baroclinic system until it is absorbed after the 48 h point. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous forecast and the current guidance, and it is shifted to the north of the previous track based mainly on the current initial position. It is unclear how much additional strengthening Philippe can do as a tropical cyclone, as the shear is increasing over the system and water vapor imagery shows dry air entrainment in the southwestern quadrant. However, the upper-level divergence over the system is very strong, and the large-scale models forecast deepening as the center crosses southern Florida and the Bahamas. In addition, the increasing forward speed may increase the maximum winds as well. Based on these factors, the intensity forecast calls for some increase in strength during the next 24-36 h. Philippe is likely to merge with a frontal system associated with the eastern U. S. trough in about 36 h, and the mid-latitude cyclone should completely absorb Philippe after 48 h, if not sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest winds are expected to remain well east and southeast of the center. However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains in effect for these areas. 2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 24.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 27.6N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 33.9N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 40.3N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 48.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
philippe
Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-10-29 03:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 290240 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 66(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 32(32) 19(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 43(43) 16(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 19(19) 12(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) MIAMI FL 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) MARATHON FL 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 34 82 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-29 03:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Philippe was located near 24.8, -82.1 with movement NNE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
philippe
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] next »