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Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 8A
2017-10-29 18:50:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291750 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE SCURRYING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 75.4W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 75.4 West. Philippe is moving toward the east-northeast near 36 mph (74 km/h). A motion toward the northeast is expected to begin later this afternoon and tonight and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move farther away from the United States east coast and the northwestern Bahamas, and emerge over the open western Atlantic this afternoon and tonight, remaining well away from the United States and Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strengthen is expected today, and Philippe is forecast to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by a large extratropical low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are occurring to the east of northwestern Bahamas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
2017-10-29 15:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2017 14:41:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2017 14:41:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-10-29 15:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Philippe looks the best it ever has, possessing a well-defined low-level center as seen in high-resolution GOES-16 visible imagery, along with at least 45-kt sustained winds based on several recent ship reports. However, the cyclone is sheared with the bulk of the convective cloud shield having been displaced northeast of the center due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds of 45-75 kt. Although the exact center of Philippe was difficult to track overnight, the current position is actually on the previous forecast track. Philippe has been moving due east at about 25-27 kt for the past few hours. However, the NHC model guidance is in decent agreement that the cyclone will turn toward the northeast by this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system and a powerful deep-layer trough moving quickly eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. The cold front is currently located only 90-100 nmi west of Philippe's center, and merger with the front along with transition to a extratropical low pressure system is expected by 12 hours, if not sooner. As the aforementioned trough becomes more negatively tilted over the next 24 hours, a strong extratropical low is forecast to develop near or just east of the North Carolina Outer Banks, pulling Philippe's circulation north-northeastward to northward in the 12-24-hour period well offshore of the U.S east coast. Absorption of Philippe's circulation into the larger extratropical low is expected to be completed by 24 hours when the larger low is located over New England. The official forecast track lies to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the recent eastward jog, and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so, mainly due weak baroclinic forcing and the faster forward speed that is forecast. However, most of the baroclinic energy associated with the negatively tilted mid-latitude trough is expected to remain to the west, triggering the development of the above-mentioned significant extratropical coastal low. In fact, some of the latent heat from Philippe's circulation will likely get drawn into the larger extratropical low developing to its northwest, aiding in that intensification process and increasing the demise of Philippe after 12 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 27.8N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 32.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-29 15:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 the center of Philippe was located near 27.8, -77.5 with movement ENE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 8
2017-10-29 15:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 77.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 77.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later this afternoon and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue to move quickly away from the Florida east coast and the northwestern Bahamas and emerge over the open western Atlantic later this afternoon, remaining well away from the United States and Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by a large extratropical low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and gusts to 51 mph (81 km/h) have been occurring at Settlement Point on the western end of Grand Bahama Island during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. The heavy rainfall threat for the Bahamas has diminished WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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