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Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
2017-10-28 22:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 20:58:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 20:58:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-10-28 22:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 282052 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Satellite images, radar data from Cuba and Key West, and surface observations indicate the depression has turned northward over the past few hours, and has also strengthened into a tropical storm. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a surface observation of 35 kt in a brief squall from Grand Cayman at 1444Z, a recent AMSU estimate of 37 kt, and average Key West Doppler radar velocities of 40 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft just north of the Cuban coast; the latter data equates to an approximate surface wind speed of 36 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 355/25 kt based on radar data and high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery over the past 2-3 hours. The low-level wind flow pattern for the next 6 hours or so is forecast to be complex, with a new non-tropical surface low having recently formed about 100 nmi west of Key West, Florida. This feature appears to have developed beneath an upper-level jet entrance region ahead of an approaching cold front. The global, regional, and even the convective-scale models are now showing the center of Philippe moving general northward across the Straits of Florida this evening and merging with the non-tropical low around 0000Z. After the merger over Florida Bay, the various models are in good agreement on Philippe moving northeastward to east-northeastward across extreme southern Florida or the Florida Keys overnight as the cyclone is accelerated ahead of the aforementioned frontal system and strong mid-/upper-level trough. After reaching the northwestern Bahamas by 1200Z Sunday morning, Philippe is forecast to accelerate further towards the northeast at forward speeds of 30-35 kt, by Sunday afternoon and evening, remaining well offshore of the Carolinas. By 36 hours, Philippe is expected to pass about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United States, and gradually getting pulled north-northeastward up the east side of a powerful baroclinic low that is forecast to develop near Cape Hatteras and move northward near the U.S. east coast. The NHC track guidance is in reasonable agreement on this developing track scenario, and lies between the GFS model, which takes Philippe across the Florida Keys, and the ECMWF model, which moves the cyclone farther north over South Florida. The vertical wind shear affecting Philippe is expected to remain favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours, along with an additional baroclinic boost from the aforementioned upper-level jet maximum. By 36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing associated with the approaching frontal system are forecast to induce additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation or absorption by a larger extratropical low is expected by 72 hours when the system is located over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest winds are expected to remain east and southeast of the center. However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains in effect for these areas. 2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.0N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-28 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Philippe was located near 23.0, -82.6 with movement N at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 5
2017-10-28 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 82.6W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37 mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central Bahamas by Sunday morning. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-10-28 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 282035 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD... LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS... CIENFUEGOS... AND VILLA CLARA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 82.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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