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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Public Advisory Number 1
2018-10-06 22:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062049 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 ...DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 86.6W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the north is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-10-06 22:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 062049 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 86.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 86.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 86.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-25 17:16:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 25 the center of Leslie was located near 31.6, -44.4 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Public Advisory Number 9
2018-09-25 17:16:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 044 WTNT33 KNHC 251516 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Advisory Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 Corrected Discussion and Outlook section ...LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 44.4W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 44.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a northward turn Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected, and Leslie is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds increasing to hurricane force on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Leslie. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Graphics
2018-09-25 16:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 14:40:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 15:22:02 GMT
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